7-day
Faribault 7-day forecast
Updated 2:00 a.m.
The week ahead in plain English, with how much to trust each day. For every model's numbers, see Models.
Warmer than normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday and Friday, then warmer than normal. Best Chance of rain The chance that rain or snow will be reported at a given place during a given time. National Weather Service glossary: Wednesday, NWS 89%, ours 100%.
Rain, Wednesday to Monday: most likely 0.35 to 0.80 in., the middle half of the 82 GFS and Euro Ensemble A set of runs of one model, started from slightly different conditions, that shows the range of possible outcomes. National Weather Service glossary' totals.
Best day: Monday, mostly sunny, a high around 59, wind up to 5 mph.
Worst day: Thursday, light rain likely, a 55% chance of rain, a high around 50.
Since 9:40 p.m. Monday:
- Sunday's high rose from 53° to 57°.
- Sunday night's low rose from 37° to 43°.
- Monday's high rose from 56° to 59°.
Warmest overnight, 60°; coolest early Saturday, 34°. Best rain chance: tonight, 90%.
NWS hour-by-hour forecast updated 12:26 a.m.
Hourly line: NWS forecast.
- Tuesday (from now), NWS hourly temperatures 52 to 60, rain chance up to 90%, about 0.18 in. of rain, wind up to 7 mph, gusts to 15.
- Wednesday, NWS hourly temperatures 46 to 53, rain chance up to 89%, about 0.17 in. of rain, wind up to 10 mph, gusts to 18.
- Thursday, NWS hourly temperatures 41 to 47, rain chance up to 76%, about 0.04 in. of rain, wind up to 10 mph, gusts to 18.
- Friday, NWS hourly temperatures 35 to 46, rain chance up to 6%, wind up to 6 mph, gusts to 13.
- Saturday, NWS hourly temperatures 34 to 49, rain chance up to 15%, about 0.01 in. of rain, wind up to 5 mph, gusts to 12.
- Sunday, NWS hourly temperatures 37 to 50, rain chance up to 13%, wind up to 8 mph, gusts to 16.
- Monday, NWS hourly temperatures 37 to 55, rain chance up to 1%, wind up to 7 mph, gusts to 14.
- Tuesday, NWS hourly temperatures 42 to 43, rain chance up to 1%, wind up to 3 mph, gusts to 9.
Cards · Table
| Day | High, likely | Low that night, likely | Rain, NWS | Rain, ours | Amount | Wind, NWS | Models (low and rain) | NWS high | NWS low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today Nov. 3 | 59° (NWS) | 83% | SW 5 to 10 mph | 59° | |||||
| Wed Nov. 4 | 55° (49 to 59) | 47° (40 to 50) | 89% | 100% | 0.20 to 0.65 in. | WSW 5 to 10 mph | Sure | 51° | 41° |
| Thu Nov. 5 | 50° (46 to 54) | 38° (32 to 42) | 55% | 86% | 0.05 to 0.20 in. | NNW 10 mph | Fairly sure | 47° | 34° |
| Fri Nov. 6 | 46° (42 to 51) | 34° (27 to 39) | 5% | 13% | NNE 0 to 5 mph | Not sure | 46° | 31° | |
| Sat Nov. 7 | 52° (47 to 58) | 38° (31 to 44) | 15% | 19% | SW 0 to 5 mph | Sure | 49° | 33° | |
| Sun Nov. 8 | 57° (49 to 64) | 43° (31 to 50) | 8% | 27% | W 5 to 10 mph | Sure | 50° | 34° | |
| Mon Nov. 9 | 59° (47 to 66) | 39° (31 to 48) | 1% | 3% | SW 0 to 5 mph | Sure | 55° | ||
| Tue Nov. 10 | 55° (47 to 63) | 37° (27 to 45) | Sure |
Key: what the cards show
Each piece of a card, shown with tomorrow's own numbers.
- The bar
Where the low and high should land about 8 times in 10 (likely), against the normal low to high for the date (NOAA 1991-2020) and the Co-op station A National Weather Service station kept by a volunteer, who reads temperature and precipitation at home or work. National Weather Service glossary's record low and high for it (its daily series runs 1895 to 2011). A line under the bar when the forecast is within 2° of that record or beyond it. The normal and record lows are for the whole calendar day, not the night after it, so they don't measure quite the same thing as our low.
- Models
Models on the low and rain: Sure. Sure on the low: GFS, GEM, NBM and ICON within 1°. Sure on rain: all 7 models at 0.05 in. or more.
How close the models are on the day's low and on rain. Beside each word: the models it rates and how far apart they are. The low: how close GFS, GEM and NBM are (and ICON through day 5). Sure within 3° for days 1 to 3 and 6° for days 4 to 7, Fairly sure within 8° and 11°, Not sure past that. Rain: Sure when every model agrees on rain or no rain (0.05 in. or more), Fairly sure when one model disagrees, Not sure on a split. Rain's models: HRRR, NAM, GFS, Euro (9 km), ICON, GEM and NBM. A day's word is the lower of the two. Model spread doesn't predict how far off the high will be, so the high gets its range, not a word.
- Rain
Rain most likely 0.20 to 0.65 in., mostly morning to evening.
- Morning81%
- Afternoon83%
- Evening89%
- Overnight76%
The likely amount: the middle half of the ensemble members' totals among those with rain, to the nearest 0.05 in., shown with a chance of 20% or more; and when: "mostly morning to evening" names the parts of the day whose NWS hourly chance is within 10 points of the highest, when the highest is 30% or more, all four are known and not all are that close. The chances are in the table below it, ours and the NWS's; on a card without that table (Today, and day 7 before the NWS reaches it) the line gives the NWS chance for the day and the night after it (ours, the ensembles', when the NWS has none). Ours is the share of GFS and Euro ensemble members with 0.01 in. or more that day, each ensemble counted equally. The bars: the NWS hourly chance, highest in each part of the day (morning, afternoon, evening) and the night after it (overnight, midnight to 6 a.m.). When every part is under 10% and our own chance for the day is too, one line stands in for the bars, naming only the parts the hourly forecast covers to their end: "Dry: under 10% chance all day (NWS)." when it covers all four, "Dry morning to evening: under 10% chance (NWS)." on a day it reaches only in part. On the Today card, which has no chance of ours, when the NWS chances for its periods are under 10% too, "Dry the rest of today: under 10% chance (NWS)." stands in for both.
- Ours and the NWS
Our forecast and the National Weather Service's For Ours NWS Differs High 55° 51° NWS 4° cooler Low 47° 41° NWS 6° cooler Rain 100% 89% Our high and low beside the National Weather Service's high for the day and low for the night after it, and both chances of rain. A row is marked when the high or low is 4° or more apart, or on rain when one is at 50% or more while the other is under 30% (Split). When the two chances are 30 points apart or more, a line under it says why they can differ: the NWS's is its forecast for Faribault's spot over its 12-hour day and night periods; ours counts ensemble runs over the calendar day.
- How it moved
Our forecast for the day as it stood at each daily save (9:40 a.m. CST), from the models' runs on hand then, the oldest on the left, with today's model weights, ending with now: the card's own forecast, from the newest runs; a sentence when it moved 4° or more.